JAKARTA — The United States (US) is projected to remain the country with the largest government debt in the world in 2026. According to projections from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), US government debt is expected to reach US$40.74 trillion.
The figure is far higher than that of other major economies. In fact, the projected US government debt is larger than the combined debt of China, Japan, the United Kingdom, and France.
Government debt is generally used as a financing instrument to support state spending and cover budget deficits. New debt can also be issued for refinancing purposes, allowing governments to repay maturing debt by issuing new debt when necessary.
Therefore, the nominal size of government debt does not necessarily indicate how heavy a country’s debt burden is. The size of the economy is also an important factor in assessing a government’s ability to meet its financial obligations.
Indonesia Ranks 19th
Based on the nominal value of government debt, Indonesia ranks 19th globally in 2026, with total government debt estimated at around US$639 billion.
The 10 countries projected to have the largest government debt in nominal terms are:
- United States: US$40.7 trillion
- China: US$22.29 trillion
- Japan: US$8.9 trillion
- United Kingdom: US$4.4 trillion
- France: US$4.25 trillion
- Italy: US$3.79 trillion
- Germany: US$3.52 trillion
- India: US$3.46 trillion
- Canada: US$2.7 trillion
- Brazil: US$2.5 trillion
Indonesia’s position among the world’s 20 largest debtors looks different when government debt is measured against the size of the economy.
Indonesia’s government debt-to-GDP ratio stands at around 40.75%. This is relatively low compared with several countries that carry significantly higher debt burdens relative to the size of their economies.
Japan Has the Highest Debt-to-GDP Ratio
When government debt is measured as a percentage of GDP, Japan ranks first in 2026, with a debt-to-GDP ratio of 204.4%.
The 10 countries with the highest government debt-to-GDP ratios are:
- Japan: 204.4%
- Singapore: 171.9%
- Sudan: 169.1%
- Bahrain: 152.4%
- Italy: 138.4%
- Greece: 136.9%
- Senegal: 132.3%
- Maldives: 129.4%
- United States: 125.8%
- Ukraine: 122.6%
The comparison shows that the nominal size of government debt alone cannot be used to assess a country’s fiscal health.
The US is a clear example. Although it has the world’s largest government debt in nominal terms, its debt-to-GDP ratio remains below that of Japan, Singapore, Italy, and Greece.
Investors also consider other factors, including the size and strength of the economy, fiscal credibility, political stability, and the government’s ability to meet its debt obligations.
The US has an additional advantage because the US dollar serves as a major global reserve currency. This status supports continued global demand for US government securities.
Japan, meanwhile, has been able to sustain a debt-to-GDP ratio above 200%, supported in part by a strong domestic investor base and a mature financial system.
Conversely, a lower debt ratio in developing countries does not automatically mean lower fiscal risk. Limited access to financing and shifts in market confidence can become important factors in determining a country’s vulnerability.
For Indonesia, a government debt-to-GDP ratio of around 40.75% indicates that its debt burden remains well below that of several countries with the highest debt ratios globally.
Therefore, the increase in Indonesia’s nominal debt needs to be viewed alongside the growth of the national economy and the government’s fiscal capacity. A large nominal debt does not necessarily mean a heavier fiscal burden, just as a low debt ratio does not automatically guarantee low fiscal risk.
